Welcome to Canonicals
Try Canonicals and forecast with confidenceExplore live markets and prove your forecasting edge.
Precision Prediction
Spot the signal, set your forecast, and target the market that fits your conviction.
Confident Staking
Stake from one deposit, set per-expiry allowances, and adjust stake or cancel before forecasting closes.
Win With Clarity
Hit your target by expiry and get rewarded for your conviction.
Open Markets, Fair Competition
Join a global community of market creators and forecasters
Everyone can predict and earn based on their accuracy—compete on precise prices, economic indicators, technical indicators, weather, and any measurable real-world metric.
Anyone can also launch a market on topics they care about and earn fees from their markets.
What Makes Canonicals Different
Beyond Binary: The Precision Revolution
Predict Exact Values
Go beyond YES/NO. Forecast precise prices, economic indicators, technical indicators, weather, and any measurable real-world metric.
Rewards Scale with Accuracy
The closer your prediction is to reality, the greater your reward. Our precision engine ranks and pays out based on true accuracy.
Built on Mathematical Rigor
Advanced statistical models (normal and lognormal distributions) fairly distribute rewards based on accuracy, timing, and stake.
Time Matters
Early, confident forecasts earn more via time-decay. The longer your prediction stands before resolution, the higher the upside.
Try the Simulator
See How Canonicals Works
The bell curve shows the probability of different Bitcoin prices at expiry date.
The peak represents the most likely price, while the edges show less probable outcomes.
This market uses lognormal distribution (for positive-only metrics or assets like Bitcoin that change by percentages). Canonicals also supports normal distribution for metrics that can have negative values (temperatures, profit/loss, interest rates).
Learn More in Documentation →Adjust your forecast and stake; both feed the expiry result simulation.
Your potential reward depends on: pool size • number of winners • prediction accuracy • prediction timing • stake amount
How Canonicals Works
Two roles, From creation to rewards
Set parameters:
Volatility, distribution type, token, fees...
One market can have many expiries (prediction rounds). Each expiry has its own end date and settings.
Forecasters browse available markets, select an active expiry and make Prediction.
• Value posted on-chain (tamper-proof)
• Smart contract calculates winners automatically
• Based on accuracy + timing + stake
• Market owner earns fees
• Added to next created expiry
• Bigger rewards next round
Forecasters predict again
The cycle never stops.
See It In Action
Experience Canonicals across all your devices
